London cannot wait for new airport, says aviation specialist

The government should not rule out a third runway at Heathrow despite the Mayor of London’s determination to build a new airport east of the capital, a US aviation expert has warned.

John Kasarda, who gave evidence to Boris Johnson and the government’s Davies Commission on aviation last week, said London could lose its crown to continental rivals during the time it took to build a brand new airport.

“The UK is highly regulated and I think 15 years is optimistic, verging on the unrealistic. Immediate steps need to be taken if London is to retain its dominance,” he told BD.

“I don’t think there’s enough time to wait for the estuary airport. If you can’t get a third runway at Heathrow, London will be put at a serious disadvantage.”

Kasarda, professor of strategy at North Carolina University, is the author of Aerotropolis which argues that future development should be planned around airports.

Heathrow T5 pod transport

Heathrow Airport, T5

This could be achieved at any of London’s existing airports including Heathrow, he said – but admitted it would be much easier on a greenfield site.

But Johnson’s aviation adviser Daniel Moylan refuted the suggestion that a third runway might be needed at Heathrow in the short term.

It was “perfectly feasible” to build a new airport in 15 years, he said, with five years for planning and procurement and up to 10 for construction.

Daniel Moylan, deputy chairman, Transport for London

Daniel Moylan, aviation advisor

The news comes as Johnson announced that a team including Zaha Hadid, Pascall & Watson and Atkins will prepare feasibility studies for airport proposals east of the capital.

They will examine in detail the case for expanding Stansted or for building a brand new airport in either the “inner” or “outer” Thames Estuary.

Of the 15-odd proposals that have been put forward by architects and others – including Foster and Grimshaw – these are the three Johnson believes to have the most potential.

Johnson this week told the Commons transport select committee that journey times to all three would be within the “golden 45 minutes” and that all would catalyse regeneration in east London.

However, so far the only fully worked-up proposal currently on the table is a third runway at Heathrow, an option Johnson believes to be politically unviable.

He wants ZHA, Pascall & Watson and Atkins to ensure Davies has equally detailed information on the east London options.

The total cost of building a new hub airport serving 180 million passengers a year would be around £80 billion, he said. With political will and a £25 billion fillip from the public purse it could be operational by 2030, he added.

What is Aerotropolis?

John Kasarda

Source: Creative commons

John Kasarda

John Kasarda’s Aerotropolis envisages 21st century cities to be built around airports, just like many 19th and 18th-century cities were built around railway stations and seaports.

Light industry, corporate headquarters and universities would circle an airport, with residential, hotels and entertainment facilities no more than 15 minutes away, giving long-distance commuters access to the city.