As the government, health bodies and others involved in our welfare plan for any number of routes back to normality, economists are also scenario planning to try to understand what will happen to our economy in the coming weeks and months and what the longer-term outlook is. There are some very clever minds at work in the Treasury, in think tanks around the country and in large businesses. But how are small businesses in our industry supposed to act when it feels like the power to control what happens is limited at best?

The answer is scenario planning. A briefing from our economic advisors last week set out how they are thinking about what will happen over the coming year.

They see three possible routes to recovery, each named after the shape of the curve that describes it: In a V-shaped recovery, the number of coronavirus cases peaks within weeks or months and begins to decline. Economic activity then takes a sharp up-turn and begins a sharp, smooth recovery.

Scenario two describes a U-shaped recovery where the virus continues to spread until a vaccine is found and the economy takes a more gradual upturn, rebounding strongly because the financial infrastructure is still in place to allow it.

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