In 2011 there were a mere 118,000 new homes built in England which is 37% fewer than 1946 and 70% fewer than the peak of 1968.
Experts have predicted that this “chronic shortage” of supply will lead to a significant housing shortage by 2031. Even at our current low level of construction, I am staggered at the amount of new homes being built and churches, council buildings and old pubs that are being converted into flats; but do we really need them?
In a BBC news article on 30th June 2011 it was confirmed that the population across the UK was 62,262,000. Using the 2008 average of 2.37 persons per household (the most up to date information available) it would mean that we need approximately 26,270,000 homes in total across the UK. But statistics from the relevant government organisations suggest there are already an estimated 26,540,000 homes in the UK, so why do we need more?
One major contributing factor seems to be the number of empty homes, which total 793,105*. Taking this reduction into account would indicate a shortfall of 523,105 homes (using my extrapolated total requirement above) which equates to 1,239,758 persons in need of a home.
(* in England 662,105: In Scotland 105,000: In Wales 26,000 )
Crisis UK in a report in 2008** estimated that there were 800,000 homeless (legal definition) of which 400,000 are “hidden homeless” eg rough sleepers, overcrowding, hostels etc. Does this therefore mean that we only require 337,552 new homes (using the average occupancy of 2.37 per household)? At the current build rate the perceived housing short fall could be resolved in three to five years. But other factors seem to be influencing this. **
Current predictions indicate that the rate of single occupancy will increase to 40% (currently 26%) of the total stock by 2031 and the population will grow to 70,000,000 with the growth occurring at major cities such as London. So while it might seem that we actually have close to the required total number of homes across the UK they appear to be neither in the correct location nor sized for our future needs. But should the tail wag the dog?
It is obvious to me from my research for this blog that the data and estimates for the number of homes, homeless, empty houses, and persons per household vary enormously and need aligning to gain a consensus. It is only once this has been done that we can understand the facts then decide if we really do have a looming housing crisis.
3 Readers' comments